Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N40W to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 08N between 09W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends across most of the basin. Isolated thunderstorms are moving across the NW Gulf off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted across the basin ahead of an approaching cold front over Texas. Fresh winds are noted north of the Yucatan. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf with 4 to 6 ft in the central and western Gulf.

For the forecast, mainly fresh SE winds will prevail across much of the Gulf through tonight, ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the northwest. The cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri and move southeast, stall from south Texas to the Straits of Florida on Sun, then weaken and drift northward. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will follow the front into Sat evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico persists across most of the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is centered NE of the Caribbean, with a trough extending over the eastern basin. This is giving way to scattered thunderstorms across the islands of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands, N of 16N and E of 72W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is off the coasts of Colombia and Panama along the monsoon trough, S of 12N.

Fresh to strong winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the NW basin with 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the SE basin off the NE Venezuela coast. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the Caribbean. Seas range 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic westward to central Florida, and will shift slowly eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and southeast Caribbean through the weekend, with some increasing winds possible early next week. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse primarily at night across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest Caribbean and south-central Caribbean off Colombia early next week, between the high pressure over the western Atlantic and lowering pressure across the southwest Gulf of Mexico and over Colombia. These winds may pulse to near-gale over the Gulf of Honduras by Tue night. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, strong thunderstorms are moving off the NE Florida coast N of 29N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over waters N of 26N and W of 60W. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure near 31N38W. Light to gentle winds are noted under the influence of the high from 22N to 31N between 45W and 75W.

An upper level trough extends over the central Atlantic along 57W, which is inducing a surface trough along 60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the surface trough from 17N to 30N between 40W and 54W. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are noted E of 55W to the coast of Africa. Seas range 5 to 8 ft across this area.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure centered near 30N35W westward into central Florida will shift slowly eastward through Sat, ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Expect fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front tonight through late Fri between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. The front will move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night, then weaken as it moves east, reaching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by late Sat night. Winds and seas will diminish into Mon as the dissipating front continues to drift east of the area, and high pressure builds between the Carolinas and Bermuda in the wake of front. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase and seas will build late Mon through Tue night off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next weak front moving into the southeastern United States.

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